Had Heath Ledger not died, would he still have won an oscar?

Well my opinion is that his performance was awesome and it was oscar worthy. Now comes the politics...he probably would not have won because of his age. The academy would have taken the position that "he is young talented actor and will have many other chances to win another one." Based on that probably the oscar would have gone to Robert Downy Jr because Hollywood loves a comeback story. Downy has the comeback story of the year and it now on top of the world after being at the very bottom just a few years ago. So to summarize, did Heath Ledge's performance merit an Oscar? Yes, but he had not not ped away he would not have won, which would have been wrong.